Giving
Without Knowing
How major donors navigate political giving they cannot measure, and what that means for organizations raising resources.
This report may not be cited, published, or distributed by any entity other than the author or Majority Rising NC without the express permission of the author. Prepared for Majority Rising NC, August 2026.
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Nearly $15 billion moved through the 2024 elections. Ask the donors giving the money what they most want to know before they give, and most name something nobody can tell them: whether the money will matter, how it will actually be spent, whether the candidate will follow through.
The critical finding
Major donors have rationally adapted to a question that cannot be answered.
60% of donors, and 8 of 11 advisors, named information that cannot realistically be known in advance. They do not respond by researching harder. They respond by building systems that make the unanswerable question unnecessary. That means deciding before the ask arrives, or handing the judgment to someone they trust.
The rules bend in one direction
- Toward people. 64% describe relationship-driven exceptions, and most name the pattern themselves before being asked.
- Not toward winning. 80% ask “does my gift matter?” rather than “can this candidate win?”, steering money to where dollars are scarce.
- Loyalty attaches to people, not organizations. Every exit donors described followed a failure inside the organization: leadership, conduct, drift. None followed a lost election.
Four types of donors
Advisors are the supply side of the same market: they source where donors receive, and research where donors lack the capacity to.
Which type of donor are you?
Ten questions in two minutes to learn more about your style of giving.
Take the quizMethod
36 semi-structured interviews with 25 high-net-worth donors and 11 professional donor advisors, a landscape review, and two decades of FEC and NCSBE campaign-finance data. All interviews were anonymized. Completed in fulfillment of the Executive Master of Public Affairs at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy. Faculty advisor: Caryl Stern, PhD. The views expressed are the author’s alone and do not represent the MPA program, the Sanford School, or Duke University.